Can France Block the EU-Mercosur Agreement?
But also — French Mess, Romania, Deforestation.
Hello! Today is December 9, and here is your EU news summary for the week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
The Briefing
After 25 years of discussions, the European Commission has finally concluded negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Mercosur trade bloc, despite strong opposition from France.
Emmanuel Macron described the conclusion of this agreement as “unacceptable.” Yet the conclusion of negotiations with Mercosur marks the very beginning of an obstacle-ridden adoption process.
25 YEARS • Negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc began in 1999. After having been suspended multiple times, a preliminary political agreement was reached in 2019, but this was later shelved, in large part due to the destruction of the Amazon under Jair Bolsonaro.
Talks resumed with Lula's rise to power in 2022, culminating in a new political agreement between the European Commission and Mercosur leaders on December 6, 2024.
The European Commission generally holds exclusive competence for negotiating international agreements, except in certain cases.
The Council of the EU plays a central role, as it grants the Commission the mandate to negotiate. After a political agreement is reached, the Council has the final say on whether or not to conclude the deal, following a vote by the European Parliament.
In cases where agreements are “mixed” (meaning that they also cover areas under the competence of Member States), ratification at the national level by each Member State is also required.
CONTENT • The agreement would gradually eliminate tariffs on 91% of goods exported from the EU to Mercosur.
Right now, exports such as cars, wine, and chocolate to Mercosur are taxed at 35%, 27%, and 20%, respectively. Tariffs on Mercosur’s exports to the EU will also be progressively removed for 92% of goods.
Supporters of the agreement include Germany, Spain, and Sweden. For Germany, the Mercosur deal is seen as indispensable in remedying their industrial challenges, particularly in the automotive sector.
Given trade tensions between China and the United States, many argue for diversifying the EU's trade partnerships, especially for securing European access to strategic materials from the region.
OPPOSITION • France is firmly against the agreement and is attempting to rally a blocking minority within the Council, where a qualified majority is required. Poland is regarded as a key ally.
The opposition is primarily centered on agriculture. Paris and Warsaw fear their farmers will struggle to compete with Mercosur products and that imports won’t be subject to the same level of environmental standards as those applied to European products.
During the European Council meeting on October 17, Emmanuel Macron reiterated his demand that the agreement “respects” COP21 commitments and includes mirror clauses on environmental standards.
However, there’s a marked difference in how much Paris may be able to influence the Commission’s President now as we near the end of 2024, compared to the start of the year.
In January, as a deal was nearing, Emmanuel Macron managed to convince Ursula von der Leyen to halt negotiations. At that time, von der Leyen needed the French president’s support for her reappointment as Commission President.
The current situation is quite different. While Emmanuel Macron faces domestic challenges, Ursula von der Leyen was reappointed in July, and her Commission — which she now dominates more than ever — was recently approved by the European Parliament.
NOT A DONE DEAL • Everything now hinges on the steps toward adopting the agreement.
The text will be translated into all official EU languages. The Commission will then present a proposal to the Council and Parliament. The format of this proposal will be crucial.
When an international agreement involves exclusive EU competences (e.g., trade policy, customs union, etc), the Council adopts it by qualified majority after Parliament’s approval (except in rare cases).
When it involves shared competences (e.g., investment protection, intellectual property, etc), the text must not only be unanimously approved by the Council but also ratified individually by Member States according to their national procedures, usually requiring a vote in national parliaments.
The EU-Mercosur agreement is a “mixed” agreement, as it covers both exclusive and shared competences.
The Commission has two options:
It could submit the entire agreement to the Council and Parliament, requiring (i) unanimous Council approval and (ii) individual ratification by all Member States.
Alternatively — and this appears likely — it could split the agreement into two parts and submit the trade-focused section separately (which covers tariffs and import quotas), thereby falling only under exclusive competences, to the Council and Parliament. Only a qualified majority in the Council would then be required.
The core of the agreement could thus be adopted by a qualified majority in the Council — denying France a veto — and without national ratifications. In France, approximately 90% of MPs and 97% of senators oppose ratification.
BLOCKING? • In this scenario, France could only block the agreement by rallying at least three other Member States representing 35% of the EU population to form a blocking minority (as per qualified majority voting rules in the Council).
It is unclear whether such a minority will emerge. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk appears ready to vote against the text. The Italian government recently expressed reservations, particularly regarding its potential impacts on agriculture, but Giorgia Meloni’s final decision remains to be seen.
In Case You Missed It
FRANCE • For the third time this year, France is awaiting the appointment of a new government. In these moments, the resigning ministers continue to vote on behalf of France within the EU Council.
There is therefore no risk that France will not have a say if a vote (for example on Mercosur) were to take place without a new government being appointed.
The effects of French political instability are damaging its credibility, particularly on the budgetary front. The same is true for Germany, where the collapse of the coalition and the upcoming elections are reshuffling the cards.
The Franco-German couple has stalled, and at the worst possible time: war in Ukraine and unrest in the Middle East, the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, to name just a few issues.
While this situation greatly weakens President Macron, he can count on the Renew group led by the French Valérie Hayer, who plays an important role in the European Parliament.
ROMANIA • On December 6, just two days before the second round of the Romanian presidential election, the Constitutional Court decided to annul "the entire electoral process" due to suspicions of Russian interference. The first round of the election saw the pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu leading.
This decision was made following the declassification of documents by the outgoing Romanian President Klaus Iohannis from the Supreme Defense Council, revealing that massive disinformation campaigns were allegedly orchestrated by Russia to influence the vote.
These documents indicate that around 25,000 pro-Georgescu TikTok accounts were suddenly activated two weeks before the first round.
Following the first round, Romanian authorities had asked the European Commission to investigate potential breaches by TikTok under the Digital Services Act (DSA) — which requires TikTok to take measures to prevent information manipulation.
The Commission requested information from the social network before issuing a "preservation order" on December 5: the platform must preserve a number of data related to disinformation risks, including internal documents, for all EU elections until March 31, 2025.
This measure aims to allow the European Commission to access all necessary information in case of an investigation against TikTok. In case of proven non-compliance following an investigation, the European Commission can impose fines of up to 6% of turnover (more details here). The date of the new elections has not yet been determined.
DEFORESTATION • On December 3, the Council of the EU and the Parliament reached an agreement to delay the entry into force of the deforestation regulation by one year, to December 30, 2025.
This delay aims to give companies more time to adapt to the regulation, which requires producers of cocoa, coffee, palm oil, livestock, rubber, soy, and wood to prove that their products are 100% "zero-deforestation."
For over a year, the EU has been under fire from its trading partners, who accuse it of producing an overly ambitious regulation.
On October 2, the European Commission had therefore proposed to grant an additional delay, which the Parliament and the Council have just agreed upon. The right-wing faction of the European Parliament took advantage of the reopening of the text to try to reduce its ambition, without success.
What We’ve Been Reading
In a post on the ECIPE’s blog, Andrea Dugo compares the Swiss and Swedish models of innovation.
This edition was prepared by Augustin Bourleaud, Lucie Ronchewski, Noé Piloquet Hana Rajabally, Théotime Beau et Maxence de La Rochère. See you next week!