Tough Road Ahead for UVDL 2
But also — Autumn Package, Christine Lagarde, Georgia
Hi! Today is December 5, and here is your EU news summary for the week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
The Briefing
On November 27, the European Parliament approved the second von der Leyen Commission with 54% of the votes. You can see here who voted in favor (370), against (282), or abstained (36).
VOTE • Recent political tensions in the Parliament did not prevent the new Commission from assuming office on December 1 as scheduled.
For background, the Parliament voted twice:
First, for the president of the Commission following the European elections. This vote took place on July 18.
Second, for the entire college of commissioners after individual hearings with the commissioners-designate (hearings were held between November 4 and 12).
The process ran into difficulties at the end of the parliamentary hearings. The European People's Party (EPP, centre-right), particularly its Spanish delegation, opposed the nomination of Teresa Ribera, a socialist from Spain; meanwhile, the Socialists & Democrats (S&D, centre-left) were hesitant to give their approval to Raffaele Fitto, backed by Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, right of the EPP).
These disagreements were resolved on November 20 through a cooperation agreement between the EPP, S&D, and Renew, the centrist group.
Von der Leyen also reached out to the Greens by appointing Philippe Lamberts, former co-chair of the Greens in Parliament, as an advisor on ecological transition on November 25.
STATUS UPDATE • To say the political landscape is fragmented is a euphemism.
While the European elections of June 2024 allowed the centrist majority (EPP, S&D, and Renew) to keep its majority, party discipline is far from perfect.
Last week, 80% (151 votes) of EPP MEPs voted in favor of the new Commission, 66% (90 votes) of S&D MEPs, and 87% (67 votes) of Renew MEPs.
Von der Leyen’s Commission relied on a slim majority (52%, 27 votes) from the Greens and a minority (42%, 33 votes) from the ECR group to win the ballot.
With 54% of votes, the Commission secured the narrowest majority since the first time Parliament voted on the college of commissioners in 1995. Since then, no Commission had received less than 61% of the votes.
To pass legislation will require majorities on a case-by-case basis, which is likely to generate tensions. This is particularly due to the possibility of the EPP shifting alliances by deciding to collaborate more with parties to its right.
Notably, on November 14, the EPP secured a postponement of the deforestation regulation with the support of the ECR group (led by Giorgia Meloni), Patriots for Europe (PfE, created by Viktor Orbán and led by Jordan Bardella), and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN, which includes Germany’s AfD and Reconquête).
This breach of the so-called “cordon sanitaire” by the EPP was a red line for many centrist and left-wing MEPs. However, the cooperation agreement between the EPP, S&D, and Renew on November 20 only commits them to cooperate and engage in constructive discussions.
EPP group leader Manfred Weber welcomed an "extended majority" spanning from the Greens to the ECR.
This confirms the perception that the EPP, which arrived first in the European elections, views itself as a central pivot in Parliament. It also reflects the surge of right-wing and far-right forces in the elections.
That said, the EPP's shifting alliances would come at a cost — its partnership with the far-right risks eroding the political capital it holds with Renew, S&D, and the Greens.
S&D group president Iratxe García Pérez warned that her group's vote in favor of the Commission was not a "blank check."
ATMOSPHERE • The stakes are high for this new Commission amid a fragmented European Parliament, political instability in France and Germany, the threat of lagging behind the US and China economically, and an uncertain situation regarding the war in Ukraine.
Political divisions in the Parliament and EU Member States will make it challenging for the Commission to strike the right balance in its legislative proposals.
In Case You Missed It
BUDGET • On November 26, the Commission presented the autumn package of the European Semester, which includes (inter alia) its opinions on draft budget plans and recommendations to the eight countries under excessive deficit procedures.
Member States must submit their budget proposals as part of the autumn package of the European Semester, a coordination exercise for budgetary policies at the EU level. The Commission can request a revised draft if there is serious non-compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.
Despite considerable political uncertainties, the Commission considers France's medium-term budgetary trajectory credible, predicting that the deficit will fall below 3% by 2029.
Germany is facing criticism from the Commission. Its draft budget for 2025 is not aligned with the Commission’s recommendations on public spending.
Disagreements over budgetary issues between Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Chancellor Olaf Scholz led to the collapse of the traffic-light coalition, amidst debates about the validity of the constitutional debt brake (schuldenbremse) established in 2009.
The Netherlands is the only country whose medium-term budgetary trajectory has been rejected by the Commission, which concluded that it did not comply with its spending recommendations.
Austria, Belgium, and Spain have not submitted a draft budget plan for 2025, as no budget has yet been presented to their national parliaments.
LAGARDE • In an interview with the Financial Times, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged the EU to focus on negotiations to prevent a trade war with the US.
In response to protectionist threats from Donald Trump, who is considering global tariffs of at least 10%, Lagarde recommends buying American.
This approach would involve increasing imports of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) and defense equipment not produced in Europe to ease transatlantic tensions.
She warned that an escalation in tariffs would harm already fragile European growth and could force the ECB to act to mitigate economic headwinds.
Although inflation has stabilized at 2%, the ECB is concerned about risks of a slowdown, with growth reaching 0.4% in the last quarter.
GEORGIA • On November 28, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced a postponement of EU accession negotiations.
A member of the pro-Russian party “Georgian Dream,” which won 54% of votes in the November 26 elections, Kobakhidze argues that this delay will allow for better preparation for membership by 2030.
He presented the postponement as a response to a resolution from the European Parliament calling out the elections and asking for a new vote under international observer supervision.
Kobakhidze has consistently refused to clarify ambiguities regarding his positions on EU membership, despite voters being resolutely in favor.
Spontaneous protests supported by President Salome Zourabichvili and opposition groups erupted in major cities across the country.
The country is expected to elect its president soon through an electoral college dominated by the ruling party, marking what could be another act in the ongoing struggle for influence between the EU and Russia.
President Zourabichvili has refused to recognize election results and announced she would not relinquish her position at the end of her term and is creating a “national council” to ensure stability in the country.
What We’ve Been Reading
Zselyke Csaky of the CER raises concerns about the state of the rule of law in the countries seeking EU membership.
In a post on EUROPP, LSE’s blog on European affairs, Mareike Kleine and Samuel Huntington show the importance of lunch breaks for sensitive negotiations at the EU level, and reflect on the need to find a balance between transparency and confidentiality.
This edition was prepared by Augustin Bourleaud, Hana Rajabally, Antoine Ognibene, Edgar Carpentier-Charléty and Maxence de La Rochère. See you next week!