Viktor Orbán’s “Peace Mission”
But also — Constitutive plenary, Patriots for Europe, Thierry vs. Elon, Apple
Hello! It’s Tuesday 16 July, and here is your EU news summary for the week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
The Briefing
Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing, and Mar-a-Lago. In the first two weeks of the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council, Viktor Orbán has already traveled to three continents on a "peace mission" to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
But Orbán did not inform any of his fellow European leaders of the trips, and the Presidency of the Council of the EU does not give him any diplomatic role to represent the EU.
JET-SET • On the second day of the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council, Viktor Orbán was already on a plane to Kyiv, where he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The reason for this visit? To encourage Zelenskyy to choose the path of peace with Russia. The Hungarian prime minister suggested an "intermediate" ceasefire to kickstart peace negotiations. Zelenskyy did not publicly react to this proposal.
Nothing new under the sun: for the past two years, Viktor Orbán has repeatedly advocated for a peace process between Ukraine and Russia. Orbán has also opposed European sanctions against Moscow and is still blocking several billion euros from being sent to Ukraine.
Nonetheless, Orbán's visit to Ukraine irritated Brussels: Orbán implied that his visit took place in the context of the rotating presidency of the EU Council, which Hungary took over on July 1 for six months. But this role is limited to presiding over meetings and organizing the Council's activities: it has no diplomatic dimension.
RU-SHAM • The situation escalated further when, just two days after his visit to Ukraine, Viktor Orbán landed in Moscow without notifying his European counterparts. It was the first visit by an EU leader to Russia since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Once again, the Hungarian leader was ambiguous. While he did not state that he was visiting Russia in his capacity as the prime minister of the country holding the EU Council presidency, the logo of the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council — a Rubik's cube — was featured on the videos of the trip posted on social media.
In a clear reflection of Orbán's lack of clarification, Vladimir Putin interpreted Orbán's visit as that of a leader representing the EU. "I understand that you have come here not only as our partner but also as the president of the Council of the European Union," he told the Hungarian leader.
This visit triggered a series of reactions in Brussels. "Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's visit to Moscow takes place, exclusively, in the framework of the bilateral relations between Hungary and Russia," Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, clarified.
According to the Council's legal service, Viktor Orbán's behavior violates European treaties:
Member states are required to "facilitate the achievement of the Union's tasks and refrain from any measure that could jeopardize the attainment of the Union's objectives" (Article 4 of the Treaty on European Union, TEU).
They must also "support the Union's external and security policy actively and unreservedly in a spirit of loyalty and mutual solidarity" (Article 24 of the TEU).
But it didn’t end there: upon returning from his trip, Viktor Orbán wrote a letter — seen by Politico — to Charles Michel and other members of the European Council, in which he echoes the language of the Russian president and calls on the EU to take the lead in initiating peace negotiations.
After his escapades in Ukraine and Russia, Viktor Orbán visited Beijing and then Mar-a-Lago — the residence of Donald Trump in Florida — in continuation of his "peace mission." As in Kyiv and Moscow, the Hungarian prime minister was ambiguous about the nature of his visit.
These visits are unlikely to lead to tangible developments. However, Viktor Orbán's attitude exposes a disunited EU to the rest of the world. "Orbán wants to show that there are no consequences for repeatedly breaching EU rules and undermining EU positions. This invites ridicules for the EU — internally and externally," claims Daniel Hegedüs of the German Marshall Fund.
WHAT TO DO • Apart from denouncing Viktor Orbán's behavior and reminding him of his duties, European leaders have so far not taken more drastic measures. What are their options?
Terminate the presidency? The option of withdrawing Hungary's presidency has been discussed several times in recent months — a law firm might have even found a legal way to do it. The idea would be to bring forward the start of the Polish presidency (originally scheduled for the first half of 2025). But European leaders fear (i) that this would set a precedent and (ii) that it would antagonize Hungary, whose support other European leaders need for votes that require unanimity.
Suspend Hungary's voting rights? Article 7 of the TEU allows the European Council to determine the existence of a serious and persistent breach by a Member State of the values listed in Article 2 of the TEU (unanimity is required). The EU Council can then, by a qualified majority, adopt the suspension of the Member State's voting rights in the Council. The European Parliament has called several times for the use of this article, but its use remains taboo among European leaders, for the same reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph.
For now, the most realistic option remains political retaliation. On July 15, Ursula von der Leyen called on European commissioners not to attend informal Council meetings organised during the Hungarian presidency. European leaders could decide to do the same and not send their ministers to these informal meetings.
In Case You Missed It
PLENARY • The constitutive plenary session of the European Parliament has begun today. On the agenda is the election of the President of the European Parliament (Roberta Metsola has been elected), the Vice-President, and the quaestors, but most importantly: the vote to approve or reject Ursula von der Leyen for the job of President of the European Commission (scheduled for early Thursday afternoon).
To be chosen for a second term, von der Leyen must gather 361 favorable votes (out of 720). She only gets one shot. If she is rejected, the European Council will have to put forward another name.
Von der Leyen has spent the past weeks negotiating left and right (literally) to convince MEPs to support her. Although she is supported by the majority coalition between the Social Democrats (S&D, center-left), the Liberals (Renew Europe), and her political group, the European People's Party (EPP, center-right), nothing is certain.
In 2019, she came within just 9 votes. Some members of the majority coalition did not support her (about 10%), so she probably — since the vote is by secret ballot — had to rely on outside support. Within her coalition, several parties have already announced that they will not support her. Among them are the Republicans (EPP) and the German Liberal Party (Renew Europe), among others.
What might suggest that von der Leyen will be "approved" by Parliament:
She will potentially be able to count on the support of the Greens: their numbers were significantly reduced after the European elections and they are determined to make compromises to retain influence in the European Parliament.
She will also potentially rely on the support of some members of the Conservative and Reformist Party (ECR) of Giorgia Meloni. Although the latter did not like being excluded from the top jobs negotiations, Ursula von der Leyen signaled that she was ready to work with her.
The fact that the vote is by secret ballot could work in von der Leyen's favor. The geopolitical context (the war in Ukraine, the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in a few months) could lead MEPs — including those who do not officially support her — to choose stability by supporting her.
"There is no plan B," Greek Commissioner Margaritis Schinas told Politico. While other names have been mentioned in recent months, von der Leyen remains by far the favorite candidate for the position.
POLITICAL GROUPS • It’s official: the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group became the third political force in the European Parliament, with 83 MEPs from 13 national parties.
ELON VS THIERRY • The Commission takes on X (formerly Twitter). The company acquired by Elon Musk in 2022 received preliminary findings under the Digital Services Act (DSA). This led to a heated exchange of tweets between Thierry Breton and Elon Musk.
The Commission opened an investigation in December 2023 to determine whether X contributes to the dissemination of illegal content and has taken adequate measures to combat online disinformation.
The blue check, which sets "verified accounts” apart, is under the Commission's scrutiny.
Any user can now buy this blue check, which prevents users (according to the Commission) from determining the reliability of these accounts.
The Commission also considers that X does not comply with transparency rules for advertising and has not provided researchers with access to its public data, as required by the DSA.
Sending preliminary findings does not prejudge the outcome of the investigation — X can now defend itself and access the case files. X risks a fine of up to 6% of its annual global revenue.
APPLE • The Commission has accepted the commitments proposed by Apple regarding Apple Pay and Apple Wallet.
The Commission's investigation began in 2020. Apple refused to provide access to NFC (near-field communication) technology on its iOS operating system to competing mobile wallet developers.
The Commission considered this refusal to be an abuse by Apple of its dominant position in the mobile wallet market on iOS. The commitments allow the case to be closed against a series of promises that Apple must comply with for 10 years in the European Economic Area.
Apple has committed to providing free access to NFC technology to its competitors to develop payment applications without going through Apple Pay or Apple Wallet. This also applies to other contactless transactions such as tickets, digital keys, or loyalty cards.
What We’ve Been Reading
In Politico, Joshua Posaner tells the story of the lost battle of the Ariane program against SpaceX.
In a blog post published on LSE's EUROPP blog, Licia Cianetti and Seán Hanley reflect on the lessons Europe can learn from the decline of democratic institutions in some Eastern European states.
Europe could borrow a trick from the United States to boost the tech sector, argues J. Scott Marcus for CEPS: give pension funds more leeway to invest in venture capital.
This edition was prepared by the What’s up EU team, including Hana Rajabally and Maxence de La Rochère. See you next week!