The Viktor Orbán Conundrum
But also — Poland, Israel and Gaza, Health, Green Deal
Hello! It’s Wednesday 24th January, and here is your EU news summary for the week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
The Briefing
On the rule of law and aid to Ukraine, the EU is at a crossroads. While European leaders are trying to convince Hungary to accept an additional €50 billion aid package for Ukraine, the European Parliament accuses the European Commission of giving in to Viktor Orbán's blackmail.
EXTRAORDINARY COUNCIL • On February 1, EU heads of state and government will meet in Brussels for an extraordinary European Council.
This meeting is the offspring of the European Council on December 14-15, 2023, during which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the revision of the EU's long-term budget (the “Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027”).
The revision of the EU budget on the table includes an additional €50 billion aid to Ukraine.
Faced with the impasse created by Viktor Orbán, European leaders decided to hold an extraordinary Council to try once more to adopt the budget revision. The reason why Hungary was able to veto the budget revision is because decisions on the EU's long-term budget must be unanimous amongst all Member States.
Despite the failure of negotiations on this point, the European Council that took place on December 14-15 allowed the opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine: the Viktor Orbán, who was originally opposed to this decision, temporarily left the meeting so that the other 26 heads of state could adopt the decision. For more details, reread our edition on the subject.
On December 13, the day before the European Council, the Commission had announced the release of €10 billion in cohesion funds for Hungary. Many saw this announcement as a manoeuvre by the Commission to convince Hungary to let other Member States open accession negotiations with Ukraine.
PARLIAMENT • Last week, the unfreezing of these funds was the subject of a debate in the European Parliament. Many Members of the European Parliament accused the President of the European Commission of giving in to Viktor Orbán's blackmail.
“It was the deal: €10 billion, and you leave the room?” said MEP Guy Verhofstadt (Renew) to Ursula von der Leyen.
Several MEPs fear that the European Commission will repeat this manoeuvre at the extraordinary Council in February in order to obtain Hungary's green light for the revision of the EU's long-term budget.
The Commission claims that the release of €10 billion is a decision that was made based on reforms initiated by Hungary to strengthen the independence of the judiciary. As a reminder, a total of €22 billion has been blocked by the Commission since December 2022 under the mechanism linking European funds to the rule of law.
"Last May, Hungary passed a new law on justice reform that addresses a number of our recommendations from the 2022 report. It is a law that strengthens judicial independence and limits the possibility of political interference in the judiciary. This was required for Hungary to meet the conditions for cohesion funds. This is what we requested and this is what Hungary delivered”, Ursula von der Leyen explained.
Parliament was not convinced by this explanation, as shown by the conclusions adopted following this debate, in which MEPs:
Ask the parliamentary committee on legal affairs to analyse the unfreezing of the funds, with a view to reviewing the legality of the decision before the Court of Justice of the European Union;
Regret that the Council has failed to “make meaningful progress in the ongoing Article 7(1) Treaty on European Union procedures.”
Article 7(1) of the Treaty on European Union allows Member States to determine that “there is a clear risk of a serious breach by a Member State of the values referred to in Article 2”. These values include human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law, and respect for human rights”
If it is established that a member state does not respect these values, the European Council can decide (by qualified majority) to suspend its voting rights for the member state in question.
NEGOTIATIONS • However, it is unlikely that Member States will venture into this procedure — even with the aim of bypassing Viktor Orbán to adopt the budget revision.
Instead, negotiations are underway to convince the Hungarian Prime Minister not to block the adoption of the revised budget. The concessions that will need to be made to convince the Hungarian leader are not yet established. However, “the EU is now convinced that an agreement can be reached in the next two weeks”, said several diplomats to Politico.
For his part, Viktor Orbán has proposed dividing the aid to Ukraine into annual decisions. However, this would give him the opportunity to block aid every year, which Member States and the Commission want to avoid at all costs.
What is certain is that the agreement that will be reached must allow Viktor Orbán to save face: this seems to be a difficult task given that he has said in December that “no money from the EU budget would go to Ukraine.”
In Case You Missed It
POLAND • In Poland, the political manoeuvres of President Andrzej Duda (PiS) pose a growing threat to the pro-European agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Civic Platform).
Since the parliamentary elections of October 2023 — won by Donald Tusk's Civic Platform — the duel between the two leaders has divided the country. President Andrzej Duda first delayed the appointment of Donald Tusk as prime minister before using his veto power on a law related to Poland's budget for 2024.
Last week, the Polish president declared that two former PiS ministers convicted of abuse of power were “political prisoners” and called for their release. Duda even went so far as to say that the measures taken by Donald Tusk violated the rule of law.
This is a delicate situation for Donald Tusk. The former President of the European Council must take ambitious measures to restore the rule of law weakened by PiS over the past 8 years: €111 billion destined for Poland is currently frozen due to violations of the rule of law (€35.4 billion from the NextGenerationEU recovery plan and €76.5 billion from the Cohesion Fund).
However, Donald Tusk must act with restraint and within the framework of the law, so that his actions cannot be compared to the practices of PiS before him, notes the FT.
The Polish Prime Minister also faces a highly divided society between supporters and opponents of PiS. So far, the he has preferred to maintain the line of the previous government on several issues, including immigration and agricultural trade with Ukraine.
Donald Tusk has his sights set on local elections in April and European elections in June: for now, his strategy is to remain as consensual as possible, both towards pro-PiS citizens and within his own coalition.
GAZA • On January 22, European foreign ministers met in Brussels to discuss the war in Gaza. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz participated in part of the discussion.
At a press conference, Josep Borrell said, “Everybody agreed that the death toll among civilians is excessive, that the situation is as very dire as you could imagine, with wide-spread hunger, and a serious lack of humanitarian deliveries and access.”
“Today, the priority (…) is on the humanitarian side of the problem. Less than 100 trucks every day — this is unacceptable. Many Member States told directly to the Israeli Minister: ‘You have to provide a quicker entrance of trucks to provide humanitarian support to the people in Gaza.’ Less than 100 trucks a day — 80 one day, maybe — when before the war, there were more 500 a day.”
“The majority of Member States have recalled that their position is to support an agreement based on the two-state solution,” explained Josep Borrell.
Asked about Belgium — which now calls for a permanent ceasefire — Josep Borrell emphasised the distinction between the Union's common positions and the individual positions of member states: “The common position is that of ‘humanitarian pauses.’ There has been no agreement at the European Council level on the common position in favour of a ceasefire, i.e., the indefinite suspension of military operations.”
Note: decisions on foreign policy matters require unanimity in the European Council.
In the European Parliament, on January 18, MEPs adopted a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire under two conditions: that hostages are immediately released and that Hamas is dismantled. MEPs from the European People's Party (EPP, centre-right) and other right-wing groups insisted that these two conditions be attached to the ceasefire demand.
So far, the Parliament as an institution had only called for a humanitarian pause, in a vote last October.
HEALTH • On January 16, the European Commission's European Authority for Health Emergency Preparedness and Response (HERA) launched an alliance for critical medicines.
This alliance had been announced in an October 2023 communication in which the Commission explained its strategy to address shortages of medicines within the EU.
During the winter of 2022-2023, the EU experienced a shortage of essential medicines (such as antibiotics). This was due to several factors: an increase in demand, low production capacity, as well as shortages of raw materials and disrupted supply chains.
The Commission presents the alliance for critical medicines as the future “industrial lever of a strong European health union.” This alliance — which is open to everyone, from companies to local authorities, to patients — will formulate recommendations to diversify supply chains, build strategic medicine stocks, and strengthen European production.
CLIMATE • On January 18, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), an independent body composed of fifteen scientific experts, published a report on the alignment of EU climate policies with the carbon neutrality goal set by the Green New Deal for 2050.
The report is unequivocal: the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions should occur twice as quickly to achieve the goal of a 55% reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
"We cannot afford to step back now," explains Ottmar Edenhofer, the German economist who heads the committee.
Among the thirteen recommendations it addresses to European decision-makers, the committee calls on governments to implement the policies of the Fit for 55 package in their national legislation as soon as possible.
The report also highlights several areas that require more effort and legislative initiatives. Thus, the next Commission should accelerate the review of European energy taxation rules — at a standstill since the rise in energy prices — which should include an increase in minimum taxation rates for fossil fuels and end exceptions granted to certain sectors such as aviation.
What We’ve Been Reading
"Can anybody stop Ursula von der Leyen?" ask several Politico journalists.
For the CER, Luigi Scazzieri analyses the state of EU-level defense initiatives.
This edition was prepared by Augustin Bourleaud, Luna Ricci, Maxence de La Rochère and Hana Rajabally. See you next week!