European Elections: Ursula von der Leyen Looks Right
But also — European SpaceX, Competition, Spitzenkandidat, Georgia, China
The Briefing
How should European leaders position themselves vis-à-vis the far-right after the European elections? As political parties grapple with this question, the differences within Europe’s far-right parties are becoming increasingly apparent.
COLLABORATION • On 23 May, during a debate among the lead candidates of European political parties, Ursula von der Leyen suggested once again that collaborating with parts of the far-right was not off the table.
She said: “It is important to set very clear principles to determine with whom we want to work in the European Parliament (...). I have three criteria: being pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin, and pro-rule of law.”
According von der Leyen, France’s National Rally (RN) and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) do not meet these criteria: “They’re friends of Putin and they want to destroy our Europe.”
But this is not true of all far-right parties: “[Giorgia Meloni] is clearly pro-European, against Putin — she’s been very clear on that one — and pro-rule of law. If this holds, then we offer to work together,” von der Leyen declared.
Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, is a member of one of the two far-right formations in the European Parliament: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) — the other being Identity and Democracy (ID).
Members of ID include the AfD, the RN and Italy’s League, among others.
Members of ECR include Brothers of Italy, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), Spain’s VOX, among others.
Within Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), von der Leyen is not alone in warming up to the Brothers of Italy. Jens Spahn, CDU MP in the Bundestag, told Euractiv that the “firewall (...) runs to the right of Meloni’s party in the European Parliament.”
WHAT’S AT STAKE • The stakes are high for the Commission President, who needs the support of a majority of MEPs to seek a second term.
In 2019, von der Leyen was approved by a mere nine votes in the European Parliament. She had the backing of the European People’s Party (EPP, to which the CDU belongs), Renew Europe (the liberal group), and the Social Democrats (S&D).
Only a portion of S&D decided to vote for her, suggesting — the vote is cast in a secret ballot — that the von der Leyen also relied on the support of other political formations, including Italy’s Five Star Movement.
Polls indicate that the EPP and the Social Democrats should retain roughly the same number of seats after the elections. However, Renew is expected to lose around twenty seats, pushing Ursula von der Leyen to seek additional support.
OPPOSITION • The positive signals sent by von der Leyen to some parts of the far-right are not welcomed by all, especially within the EPP-S&D-Renew coalition.
Last week, Giacomo Filibeck, Secretary General of the Party of European Socialists (represented by S&D in Parliament), called on the EPP to see the “true face” of Meloni. Earlier this month, Renew, S&D and the Greens co-signed a letter urging Ursula von der Leyen not to collaborate with the far-right.
Opposition also comes from some European heads of state and government. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (whose party belongs to S&D) warned that it would be “a mistake for Europe’s future” if the next Commission was “based on a majority that also needs the support of right-wing extremists.”
Before securing a majority in the next Parliament, von der Leyen must first be proposed by the European Council, which will vote by qualified majority.
DEVELOPMENTS • For now, von der Leyen remains open to collaboration with MEPs to the right of the EPP. However, this potential collaboration “depends on the composition of Parliament and who is in which group,” she said.
Indeed, Europe’s far-right is going through a tumultuous period: nine members of Germany’s AfD were recently expelled from the ID group in the European Parliament, following repeated scandals involving MEP Maximilian Krah.
Without AfD, ID now consists of only seven parties — the minimum needed to form a political group in the European Parliament.
Tensions between the RN and the AfD have intensified in recent months: the AfD’s increasingly extreme positions have embarrassed the RN. Furthermore, ID decided not to publish a common manifesto for the upcoming election.
There are also tensions between the ID and ECR groups. While Poland’s former Prime Minister (from PiS) suggested that a merger between the two groups was possible, it remains highly uncertain due to significant disagreements over the role of European institutions and support for Ukraine.
Giorgia Meloni is at the centre of these recent developments. While the Italian Prime minister could help Ursula von der Leyen get the necessary support in the European Parliament, she is courted by other far-right politicians that von der Leyen wants to stay away from, such as Marine Le Pen. Until now, Giorgia Meloni has remained evasive on what her intentions are for the post-election period.
In Case You Missed It
EUROPEAN SPACEX • On May 22nd, at the annual European Space Summit, the European Space Agency (ESA) announced it selected of two companies to develop a cargo spaceship capable of transporting goods to the International Space Station (ISS) and returning to Earth. Until now, European spaceships were not designed for the return journey.
The selected companies are the Franco-Italian group Thales Alenia Space (TAS) and the Franco-German startup The Exploration Company. The initial ESA funding amounts to €25 million.
This is the first project where ESA fully trusts private entities. It is similar to what NASA is doing with SpaceX as part of the COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation Services) program.
For Europe, the short-term goal is to become more autonomous in space transport: by 2030, the ISS will be abandoned, and private space stations will take over.
In the medium-term, Europe could use these cargo vessels for manned flights, which only the United States, China, Russia, and India are currently capable of.
TOBLERONE • Mondelez — the American company behind Oreo, Toblerone, TUC, and Milka — was fined €337.5 million by the European Commission last week.
Mondelez allegedly partitioned national markets by imposing contractual clauses limiting its wholesalers' ability to sell and buy in other Member States.
Several European governments, led by the Netherlands, have sent a letter to the Commission, urging it to act against territorial restrictions contractually imposed by brands to prevent parallel imports.
Major brands frequently use these clauses to maintain differentiated pricing across EU markets, avoiding wholesalers importing products from countries where they are sold cheaper to resell them where prices are higher.
The letter’s signatories want these territorial restrictions declared illegal ex-ante, without competition authorities needing to prove ex-post abuse of dominant position.
According to a 2020 Commission study, European consumers would save €14.1 billion annually if these territorial restrictions were abolished within the EU.
SPITZENKANDIDATEN • On Thursday, May 23rd, the third and final debate among candidates for the European Commission presidency (or the “lead candidates”, aka Spitzenkandidaten) was held by the European Parliament.
All candidates advocated for legal immigration pathways to address the European economy’s labor shortages. Nicolas Schmit (Party of European Socialists, PES) criticized outsourcing border management to third states.
On defense, Ursula von der Leyen supported dual rearmament of Ukraine and member states, promoting the idea of an “air defense shield for the entire European Union.”
In another debate organized by Bruegel and the Financial Times on May 21st, Sandro Gozi (Renew) condemned China’s “increasingly aggressive” trade policies, while Nicolas Schmit warned of a potential “beginning of a trade war.” Ursula von der Leyen downplayed the likelihood of a trade war.
On the economy, Ursula von der Leyen proposed making cohesion and CAP funds accessible to member states in exchange for economic reforms.
GEORGIA • The Venice Commission — the highest constitutional law body of the Council of Europe — urged the Georgian government to abandon the law on foreign influences, highlighting its similarities to controversial laws implemented by Russia, Hungary, and Kyrgyzstan. This law would restrict media and NGO freedom in Georgia.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new visa restriction policy for those responsible for or complicit in “destabilizing democracy in Georgia,” and reassessment of bilateral relations.
CHINA • Last week, during a speech in Germany, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on the EU to align with the recent American increase in tariffs on Chinese products, particularly electric vehicles.
What We’ve Been Reading
For the Institut Montaigne, Joseph de Weck assesses the state of Franco-German relations.
Fredrik Erixon of ECIPE turns to Tocqueville to understand the democratic challenge that European institutions are facing.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute defends Europe's pragmatic response to the boom in Chinese electric vehicles exports.
This edition was prepared by the What’s up EU team, including Thomas Blanda, Lidia Bilali, Gianni Gaboret, and Maxence de La Rochère. See you next week!