EU Leaders Change Their Tune on Immigration
But also — Moldova, Inflation, Google, Water
Hello! Today is October 22, 2024, and here is your EU news summary for the week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
The Briefing
Migration issues were at the forefront of last week's European Council. European heads of state and government asked the European Commission to urgently adopt a legislative proposal to speed up the return of irregular migrants to their countries of origin.
IMMIGRATION • The issue of migration has been back under the spotlight ever since the end of the Covid-19 epidemic. In May, the Pact on Migration and Asylum was adopted. This pact is the conclusion of eight years of reflection on how the EU should manage its migratory flows. Among other things, it strengthens border controls and establishes a solidarity framework to share asylum-related responsibilities among Member States
The pact will not apply until 2026. This is too late, according to several European governments:
By 2023, the number of irregular crossings of the EU's external borders had reached 380,000, the highest level since 2016.
According to the results of an Ipsos poll published in March 2024, more than half of European citizens have a negative perception of European migration policies, and more than two-thirds believe that reinforcing borders should be the main priority in the coming years.
The increase in the number of irregular migrants, combined with pressure from right-wing and far-right parties, has led nine European countries to establish border controls in 2024: Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Slovenia and Sweden. According to Frontex, the number of irregular border crossings fell by 40% in 2024.
CENTRES • The debate has intensified in recent weeks. In a letter to European leaders last week, Ursula von der Leyen suggested setting up ‘return hubs’ in third countries. Two options are on the table:
Processing asylum applications from ‘return centers’ located in non-EU countries: Ursula von der Leyen is calling on the Member States to draw inspiration from Italy, which in November 2023 concluded an agreement with Albania to build return centers there and process asylum applications from men (women, children and vulnerable persons are not concerned). It seems difficult to guarantee that the rights of asylum seekers under European law will be respected in non-EU countries such as Albania — Italy refutes this, explaining that the centers in Albania are established under Italian jurisdiction. However, on 18 September, an Italian court refused to allow the asylum applications of a first group of migrants from Egypt and Bangladesh to be examined in Albania.
Expel irregular migrants (who have not been granted asylum) to these centers, until they can return to their country of origin. In 2023, of the 484,000 migrants ordered to leave the EU, only 20% left European territory.
Several European leaders are opposed to these centers, in particular the socialist Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. The Dutch government, in which Geert Wilders' PVV party participates, is in favor of the idea. The Dutch Minister for Trade and Development has even mentioned Uganda as a possible partner country, despite persistent human rights violations there.
In the conclusions of the European Council of 17 October, the European heads of state and government called on the Commission ‘to present urgently a new legislative proposal’ aimed at ‘facilitating, increasing and accelerating returns from the European Union’. This proposal could contain elements on the establishment of return centers.
FRANCE • From the French perspective, Prime Minister Michel Barnier said the agreement between Italy and Albania ‘cannot be transposed (...) for legal and institutional reasons’. He added: ‘We are going to cooperate even more with transit countries or countries of departure. This is what Italy is doing, with the support of the European Union, with Libya and Tunisia.’
Barnier was referring in particular to the agreements concluded by the European Commission with third countries, under which the EU provides economic support in exchange for tighter control of migratory flows directly at their source — before they reach the EU. These agreements are controversial: several NGOs accuse the Commission of exposing migrants to human rights abuses in countries that have a poor track record on this topic.
POLAND • A few days before the European Council met, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that he intended to temporarily suspend the right to asylum for people crossing the Polish border from Belarus due to security concerns. He accused Russia of using migratory flows — via its Belarusian ally — to destabilize the country.
His decision is causing controversy. It is partly motivated by the approach of the presidential elections, which will take place in the spring of 2025. Current President Duda, from the PiS party, is using his right of veto to prevent a number of reforms, notably to the judicial system.
Nevertheless, the European heads of state and government have offered their support to Poland: “The European Council expresses its solidarity with Poland and with the Member States facing these challenges. Exceptional situations call for appropriate measures.”
The European Council's conclusions do not mention the idea of speeding up the application of certain provisions of the Asylum and Migration Pact — even though several Member States, including Germany, France and Spain, are in favor of this — notably because Poland fears that speeding up the application of these rules would prevent it from putting the aforementioned measures in place.
In Case You Missed It
MOLDOVA • Presidential elections and a referendum on enshrining EU membership as a constitutional goal took place last Sunday in Moldova.
The pro-European incumbent President Maia Sandu came first, gathering 42.3% of the votes. After many hours of uncertainty — as of Monday morning, it still seemed the country had voted against enshrining EU membership in the constitution — the final results indicate that 50.4% of voters have voted “yes” to the referendum.
Accusations of Russian interference have surrounded the vote. In a press conference prior to the final results being published, Maia Sandu accused "criminal groups, working with foreign forces" of spending "tens of millions of euros" to influence the outcome of the vote. After the results, the Kremlin promptly criticized the vote counting, citing "anomalies."
Ursula von der Leyen has reacted positively to the outcome: “In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future!”, she tweeted.
Moldova's EU accession negotiations were opened in June.
INFLATION • On October 15, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to lower its three main interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%).
Effective from October 23, the deposit facility rate will be set at 3.25%, the refinancing operations rate at 3.40%, and the marginal lending facility rate at 3.65%. This anticipated reduction — following similar cuts in June and September — comes as inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.7% year-on-year in September.
The Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, indicated that the goal of bringing inflation back to 2% could be achieved earlier than expected in 2025. In France, despite the drop in inflation, the household savings rate remains high, with a level three points higher than in 2019 by mid-2024, according to INSEE.
The situation is uncertain. Some components of inflation, particularly in services, remain at 4%, hence the ECB's caution. However, some fear that rates that are still too high could further restrain sluggish growth (notably in Germany) and hinder the investments the EU needs.
The ECB has given no indication of further rate cuts to come.
GOOGLE • The US Department of Justice (DoJ) has informed Judge Amit Mehta that it may ask for a breakup of Google as a proposed remedy for the latter’s monopoly powers.
As the DoJ explains in its filing, separating Google into smaller entities would prevent the company from using products such as Chrome, Play, and Android to fortify its position in the market for search engines. Google has responded in a blog post. In the US, the regulator must convince the judge that its proposed solution is viable and likely to correct the identified competition problem.
The trial is due to conclude in the summer of 2025. But the Commission may feel encouraged by the radical proposals of the DoJ. DG COMP is also considering structural remedies (a breakup of the company) in its ongoing investigation into Google’s position in the advertising technology industry (‘adtech’).
WATER • Water stress – when there is not enough water of sufficient quality to meet demands – is affecting around 20% of European territory and about 30% of Europeans each year, according to the latest report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). It is not just a meridional issue: the Benelux are affected as much as the south of Spain.
The quality as well as the quantity of Europe’s waters leave much to be desired. The main causes for the poor chemical status of EU surface waters are long-lived pollutants such as mercury (released into the atmosphere during coal burning) and brominated flame retardants, whereas groundwater is badly affected by nitrates and pesticides used for agricultural production. Germany, Poland, and Sweden are among the worst affected countries.
Agriculture is the largest net consumer of water in Europe and the most significant pressure impacting both surface and groundwaters. The report calls for changes in agricultural practices: ‘Changes in farming practices and new technologies can help ensure productivity while enabling agriculture to reduce pollution and adapt to lower water use.’
What We’ve Been Reading
The FT’s Owen Walker investigates the prospects for pan-European consolidation in the banking sector.
This edition was prepared by Augustin Bourleaud, Léopold Ringuenet, Antoine Ognibene, Lidia Bilali, Hana Rajabally, Rogier Prins, Maxence de La Rochère, and Lucie Rontchevsky. See you next week!