Agreement on Top Jobs
But also — New alliance in the EP, Competition, Ukraine
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The Briefing
It's a deal. During the European Council meeting on June 27-28, EU heads of state and government reached an agreement on the allocation of top jobs within European institutions.
TRIO • In a shorter-than-expected European Council meeting on 27-28 June, the three expected candidates for the EU’s top jobs were nominated. In all likelihood, the agreement had been sealed before the summit even began thanks to the work of negotiators.
Former Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister (2015-2023) António Costa was selected to become the next European Council president after Charles Michel. The main obstacle to his nomination was a corruption scandal that forced him to resign in November 2023. Investigations are still ongoing, but Costa has not been formally charged with any crime, unlike many former Portuguese government members. This investigation was used by the European People's Party (EPP, center-right) to question Costa’s nomination. Costa is a social-democrat of the conservative kind with an orthodox economic policy stance.
Ursula von der Leyen was nominated for a second term at the helm of the European Commission. By choosing her, European leaders opt for stability.
Current Estonian liberal Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was appointed as the EU’s top diplomat (High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, if you like long titles). Little known outside Estonia until 2022, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine propelled Kallas to the forefront of European politics. Her appointment sends a powerful signal to Russia — where she is persona non grata — and to Ukraine — "unwavering" is the adjective used by Volodymyr Zelensky to describe Estonia’s support to Ukraine under Kaja Kallas.
While this allocation of jobs in this way was deemed the most likely outcome, it was not clear at all times that it would pan out like this. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni was determined to grab one of the posts for her political group, the far-right ECR. The result, as it stands now, reflects that she has not been unable to assert herself.
Even the EPP had to backtrack on its aspirations. In a burst of self-confidence bolstered by its electoral win, EPP leaders had demanded to split up the position of the Council president between the EPP and S&D, with a candidate of each party taking up the role for half of the five-year term of the Council presidency.
NOT SO FAST • For António Costa, the matter is already settled: other institutions have no say in choosing the European Council President. His nomination is therefore equivalent to his election. Costa will take office on December 1 for a two-and-a-half-year term that will likely be renewed.
However, Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas will need approval from the European Parliament.
Ursula von der Leyen must obtain the Parliament’s approval (simple majority) in a vote expected to take place on July 18. Things are still very uncertain for her: the newly elected European Parliament is more hostile to her than the previous one. The coalition between the EPP, Social Democrats (S&D, center-left), and liberals (Renew Europe) that supported her in 2019 has weakened. This requires her to team up with either the Greens or the ECR. In 2019, the vote was decided by just 9 votes.
The entire College of Commissioners (including Kaja Kallas) will be approved in a single vote (simple majority) after hearings in the European Parliament.
If Ursula von der Leyen does not get approved in Parliament and a new candidate for Commission president has to be put forward, there could be repercussions on the whole top jobs package, meaning the other candidates as well.
MELONI • The trio did not obtain unanimous approval within the European Council — the three candidates only needed a qualified majority to be nominated.
Giorgia Meloni abstained from voting for Ursula von der Leyen and voted against the nominations of António Costa and Kaja Kallas.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán voted against von der Leyen, in favor of Costa, and abstained for Kallas.
This is very much a protest vote from the Italian Prime Minister, who is dissatisfied that her political group's impressive performance in the European elections does not translate into any ability to claim a top job. Unlike Viktor Orbán, whose support is not vital, Ursula von der Leyen cannot ignore the warning sent to her by Giorgia Meloni.
It is also possible that Meloni's abstention is actually a staged move that allows her to not lose face. It is not unlikely that Giorgia Meloni will gradually align herself behind von der Leyen.
In Case You Missed It
NEW ALLIANCE • On 30 June, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced a new political alliance in the European Parliament between his party, Fidesz, the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the Czech Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) movement (which left Renew a few days ago). Its name? The Patriots of Europe.
The three parties reach the threshold of 23 members required to form a new parliamentary group within the Parliament. However, they still need to gather MEPs from at least 4 other countries if they want to have the right to form a proper political group (which will allow them to obtain additional funding and claim positions of chairs of parliamentary committees, among other things).
COMPETITION • DG Competition has been working overtime. On 24 and 25 June, Margrethe Vestager’s teams launched proceedings against Apple and Microsoft.
DG COMP has sent preliminary findings to Apple, accusing it of preventing app developers from freely steering users to third-party channels on the App Store.
This is a first under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Preliminary findings are a preparatory step before the opening of a formal procedure.
The Digital Markets Act (DMA) requires gatekeepers like Apple to allow app developers to freely promote (on Apple's App Store) purchase options other than via the App Store.
The Commission preliminarily considers that Apple is not complying with this obligation under the DMA. As it stands, developers face many barriers to promote third-party offerings, and Apple charges a commission that is deemed excessive on sales generated through this channel.
Still regarding Apple, the Commission has opened an investigation for non-compliance with the DMA concerning Apple's new contractual conditions for developers. DG Competition’s objections concern:
The 50-cent commission per download charged by Apple on downloads of apps from 1 million users
The many steps required to install app stores competing with Apple's App Store on iPhone devices
The eligibility conditions applicable to developers to be allowed to offer alternative app distribution channels
Finally, the Commission has sent a statement of objections to Microsoft, which could lead to the adoption of a formal decision.
The Commission considers that the tied sales of Teams and Office 365/Microsoft 365 could constitute an abuse of dominant position.
After the Commission opened the procedure in July 2023, Microsoft changed its distribution model for Teams, offering Windows suites without Teams. The Commission considers that these changes are not sufficient.
This procedure is not based on the DMA but on classic competition law.
UKRAINE • Ukraine and Moldova have officially started their EU accession negotiations, nearly two and a half years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The EU’s foreign ministers met on 25 June with Ukrainian and Moldovan officials to launch the process.
However, Ukraine's path to accession is likely to be arduous:
According to the FT, the EU is preparing to reintroduce customs duties on certain Ukrainian agricultural products by using the "emergency brake" for the second time, which allows the EU to limit imports of certain agricultural products from Ukraine when they exceed certain thresholds. After oats, sugar and eggs are targeted. These measures — which aim to appease European farmers — suggest a difficult integration of Ukraine into the single market.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also represents an obstacle. As Hungary takes over the rotating EU Council presidency, European leaders are looking for ways to bypass the Hungarian prime minister, who is currently blocking 7 EU decisions that could provide €6.6 billion to Ukraine.
Despite these obstacles, Ukrainian minister Olha Stefanishyna remains optimistic and hopes for "a dynamic accession process as early as 2025", when the Polish presidency of the Council of the EU starts.
What We’ve Been Reading
In an ECIPE Policy Brief, Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma and Elena Sisto advocate prioritising legal harmonization to deepen the single market.
In Transitions, Lelde Luika reflects on Latvia, twenty years after the Baltic country became a member of the EU.
This edition was prepared by the What’s up EU team, including Paul Healy, Lidia Bilali, Marwan Ben Moussa and Maxence de La Rochère. See you next week!