Dark Times for the Green Deal
But Also — LATAM in Brussels, Spain and the EUCO, Scott-Morton Will Stay in America
The Briefing
This is an eventful time for the European Green Agenda.
After the in extremis adoption of the Nature Restoration Law by the European Parliament two weeks, the European Commission is set to lose one of the Green Deal’s architects, Frans Timmermans.
At the same time, EPP conservatives are opposing major Green Deal legislation, and the role of nuclear in the EU's climate strategy seems anything but resolved.
GOODBYE • EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans says he has made the decision to return to Dutch politics, after nearly a decade in Brussels. He was a key player in the Green Deal, a legislative package that sets the course for Europe achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
Timmermans will lead a collation between the Labour Party and the Greens. Everything suggests that he will leave the Commission by September, when both parties have officially nominated him as their candidate.
His departure questions the Commission's ability to bring key Green Deal proposals to a safe conclusion by the European elections in 2024. This happens at the same time as Margrethe Vestager, another key EU Commissioner, is running for the top job at the European Investment Bank.
COP28 • Finding a replacement for Frans Timmermans for the remainder of the Commission's mandate therefore seems essential, especially as COP28 — which starts in Dubai on 30 November — is fast approaching.
"I don't see how we could not have a climate commissioner for COP28”,said Pascal Canfin, chair of European Parliament's environment committee.
Timmermans had developed valuable relationships with several key international players on climate issues, such as John Kerry, the US President's special envoy for climate, and Chinese delegations of negotiators on climate.
GOOD RIDDANCE • For many conservatives, Timmermans' imminent departure is a godsend.
"If Frans Timmermans leaves earlier than expected, it will be good for climate protection. With his provocative behaviour, he has complicated matters with the Nature Restoration Law," said Peter Liese, a German MEP from the European People's Party (EPP).
Several fractions of the EPP have indeed frontally opposed Timmermans and the ambition of several Green Deal legislation pieces in recent weeks. Last week, the EPP managed to dilute the scope of the directive on industrial emissions by excluding cattle farming, and considerably limited the ambition of the law on the restoration of nature, which nevertheless passed in extremis.
BAD TIMES • The Green Deal is going through a difficult moment.
An informal coalition between the EPP, the Social Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew had so far allowed most of the Green Deal legislation to pass Parliament without too much trouble. It was this same coalition that also helped elect Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission.
If the recalcitrance of the EPP vis-à-vis the Green Deal does not concern all the members of the party, it is indeed part of a broader rhetoric at the European level, notably illustrated by the demand for a "regulatory pause" at the European level by Emmanuel Macron.
Many right-wing European leaders have taken up this expression, calling for a regulatory pause justified by "new economic and social realities" arising from the war in Ukraine.
NUCLEAR • In parallel, several Gordian knots remain between the lines of several pieces of legislation of the European Green Deal. Among them, the place of nuclear power in the decarbonisation of the EU is the subject of endless debates.
Last week the Parliament's Industry Committee reinstated the whole of nuclear power in the list of technologies recognised as being of major importance for Europe's green reindustrialisation under the Net-Zero Industry Act.
Until now, only an extremely small part of nuclear technologies was included in the text, and these were not even mentioned among the "strategic" technologies which will benefit from faster authorizations for their implementation.
As for the reform of the design of the electricity market, the prospects for nuclear power are less clear. While the France wants the funds raised through two-way contracts for difference (CfDs) — which will limit excessive income for electricity producers — to be used to support the maintenance of pre-existing nuclear installations, the European Parliament wants to limit this to new nuclear installations.
IN BRIEF • The electoral strategies of the various parties in the run-up to the European elections seem to be increasingly intertwined with the formation of climate policies, which concentrate social and economic concerns.
The consequences of Timmermans' departure, the disavowal of part of the EPP vis-à-vis Ursula von der Leyen on the Green Deal as well as the inter-institutional debates on the place of nuclear power will have to be followed closely to better understand the upcoming elections and the direction that the Green Deal will take in the coming months.
If he wins, he will face strong opposition represented by the VDD (the centre-right party of the outgoing Prime Ministerwho did not wish to stand again) and the PPP (Farmer-Citizen Movement) which easily won the senatorial elections by holding populist positions and largely critical of the European ecological policies implemented by F. Timmermans.
Inter alia
INTERNATIONAL • After eight years without a common forum, leaders of the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) met in Brussels for the third EU-CELAC Summit.
Co-chaired by European Council President Charles Michel and the Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the summit resulted in a renewal of this strategic partnership, materialized by the announcement of 130 projects in the fields of ecological transition, digital transformation, vocational training and health, including vaccine manufacturing. The EU has also announced an investment of €45 billion until 2027, a variation of the European "Global Gateway" for the South American continent.
With the signing of a modernised free trade agreement with Chile, and the expected finalisation of the one with Mexico and the Mercosur member countries, the EU is banking on its strategic relationship with CELAC countries to secure its supply of raw materials. As a reminder, Brazil is the EU's leading partner in this area, and the South American "lithium triangle", between Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, represents one third of world reserves.
European leaders, however, have failed to extract a firm and unanimous condemnation of Russian aggression in Ukraine, missing the signature of Nicaragua, an ally of Moscow. At the time of the Spanish Presidency of the Council, the countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) were also keen to include in the final declaration the question of reparations for crimes linked to the Atlantic slave trade.
The European Union and Tunisia also signed a memorandum of understanding on combating illegal immigration, economic development and renewable energy. In its migration chapter, it provides for aid of €105 million to prevent Mediterranean crossings, combat smugglers and facilitate returns from Tunisia to countries of origin. Criticized because of the treatment of migrants by the Tunisian authorities, this protocol could nevertheless serve as a model for future agreements with Egypt and Morocco.
SPAIN • The Spanish elections leave the country unclear about its next government, with potential repercussions for the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU. While the People's Party (PP) won the most seats in parliament, it seems unlikely that a coalition with its far-right Vox would allow the party to form a government. Indeed, both parties would need the support of pro-independence parties — without which the PP and Vox would not have a majority — to which Vox is fundamentally opposed.
The probability that Pedro Sanchez's Socialists (PSOE) and Sumar, a far-left party, will succeed in forming a government is higher. The two parties do not have a majority in Parliament, but their right-wing rivals have a much better chance of convincing the separatists to side with them. If neither side manages to form a government within two months, new elections will have to be held, as in the 2019 and 2015 elections.
The consequences for the EU Presidency are likely to remain limited in the two likely scenarios, with Pedro Sanchez remaining in power for almost the entire presidency in both situations.
COMPETITION • In a letter to the EU Commission published last Wednesday, Fiona Scott Morton, professor of economics at Yale, announced that she had "determined that the best solution was for me to step down and not accept the position of chief economist" in the department that oversees EU competition policy.
Her appointment by Margrethe Vestager caused an uproar in some Member States, France having particularly distinguished itself in this sequence. President Macron and the presidents of four of the European Parliament's leading political groups have questioned the influence of Morton could play in the exercise of her duties. Her consulting activities on behalf of GAFAM have also been singled out by opponents of his appointment.
The Commission initially refused to reassess its decision, considering that Morton was the most qualified candidate for the post, so she withdrew on her own, stating that the smooth exercise ofher function required the "full support of the 27 Member States" and that this was clearly not feasible as it stood.
What We’re Reading
The signals are red for German industry, writes Matthew Karnitschnig in Politico. The headwinds it faces threaten the economic model that has brought the country its prosperity.
In an article for the EPC, Fabian Zuleeg and Philipp Lausberg explain what the "EU industrial policy trilemma" is: having to sacrifice either the realization of the quadruple transition (sustainable development, technology, security and demography), or the integrity of the single market, or national control of industrial policy.
This edition was prepared by Kimia Vaye, Marwan Ben Moussa, Augustin Bourleaud and Maxence de La Rochère. See you next Monday!
Hi! Small notes about the Dutch parties mentioned. Maybe this is my fault because I read in Dutch but I think PPP is meant to be BBB (BoerBurgerBeweging) and VDD (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie) is meant to be VVD. Thanks as always for the coverage! It really keeps me up to date :)