An Extraordinary Summit
But also — Northern Ireland, Energy Charter Treaty, PFAS
Hi! This is Monday, 13 February 2023, and here’s the news you need to start your week. Feel free to share this newsletter with friends and colleagues, and follow us on Twitter and Linkedin.
The Briefing
On 9 February, the European Council met in Brussels for an extraordinary one day summit. After a face-to-face exchange with the Ukrainian president, EU leaders adopted conclusions on Ukraine, migration and industry.
RED CARPET • For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski visited Brussels in person to address European institutions.
The Ukrainian president was given a standing ovation by the entire European Parliament, and reiterated his ambition to join the EU as soon as possible: "Ukraine is Europe and the future of your nation is in the European Union," said Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament.
EU leaders were more cautious and made no promises about the timetable for negotiations. While Ukraine has had EU candidate status since June 2022, formal negotiations on joining the bloc can only begin once the country has met the conditions set out by the European Commission.
"There is no rigid timetable. It is a merit-based process," Ursula von der Leyen said on the. While Ukraine is unlikely to receive preferential treatment in the accession process, EU leaders nevertheless acknowledged Ukraine's "considerable efforts" to meet the goals set out in the Commission's opinion.
SANCTIONS • The Council, however, reaffirmed its support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. Total assistance to Ukraine from the EU and its Member States now amounts to 67 billion euros, including €12 billion in military support.
The Ukrainian president stressed the importance of maintaining pressure on Russia with new sanctions. A new package of sanctions will soon be presented by the Commission and should include Russian disinformation.
The Russian budget deficit recently reached 25 billion dollars. By 2022, Russian public spending had increased by 59%, while revenues from the oil and gas sector had fallen by 46% — which shows the effect of EU sanctions on energy.
AIRCRAFTS • Volodymyr Zelenski also called on EU leaders to step up their military support by sending new equipment — fighter jets in particular. The Ukrainian president fears a Russian army offensive in the spring, following the first anniversary of the conflict on 24 February.
After his talks with European heads of state, Zelenski said he had received positive responses about his demands for fighter planes. If these shipments materialise, they would represent a significant change in the nature of member-state support for Ukraine — EU leaders have so far refused to provide long-range weapons and military aircraft to the country.
MIGRATION • The departure of Volodymyr Zelenski made space for other burning issues. Among them, migration was the subject of much discussion, stretching into the middle of the night.
Migration policy has recently returned to the forefront of the European agenda. In 2022, a total of 330 000 irregular entries into the Schengen area were recorded — the highest level since 2016.
In its conclusions, the Council "calls on the Commission to immediately mobilise substantial EU funds and resources to assist Member States in strengthening border protection capacity and infrastructure" as well as "surveillance capacity".
While the views of individual Member States on the migration issue differ, the tone of the Council conclusions signals a toughening stance. In the run-up to the summit, a letter signed by eight countries — Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta and Slovakia — called on the Commission and the Council to adopt a more restrictive migration policy.
Austria, the cheerleader for the group, focused the debate on the possibility of the EU financing walls in the Member States — an idea rejected by the Council, but whose conclusions reflect the firm position of Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer.
The conclusions also concern the strengthening of the EU's external action and return and readmission policy. On the latter, the Council wishes to use as leverage "all policies, instruments and tools available to the EU for this purpose, including diplomacy, development, trade and visas, as well as legal migration opportunities".
INDUSTRY • Finally, EU leaders showed their support for the Green Deal Industrial Plan, following the Commission's communication of 17 January on the subject. However, the Council's agreement masks internal divisions over the loosening of state aid rules and the possibilities of re-incurring common debt at EU level - for more information, please see our previous edition.
In Case You Missed It
NORTHERN IRELAND • The UK Supreme Court has thrown out an appeal by unionist politicians, including former First Minister Arlene Foster and late Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble, to have the Northern Ireland protocol declared unconstitutional. The judgement on 8 February followed two defeats in lower courts and means that no more legal challenges to the protocol are possible.
The protocol is essential to the UK’s withdrawal agreement from the EU as it ensures that Northern Ireland, unlike the rest of the UK, is subject to EU goods rules. Lord Stephens, who handed down the ruling, said there had been “intense parliamentary involvement” in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, so the government was authorised by the EU Act 2020 to draw up the protocol. The ruling removes another stumbling block for London and Brussels to produce a compromise breakthrough that would “minimise… the need for checks on goods arriving from Britain into Northern Ireland ports”.
It also follows positive comments from key figures such as Michel Barnier, Brussels’ former Brexit negotiator, who said on January 29th that both sides have a “common willingness” to move past the row.
ENERGY CHARTER • According to a leaked European Commission non-paper, the Commission will recommend a coordinated withdrawal of the EU and its 27 member states from the 1998 Energy Charter Treaty. The ECT is a controversial investment treaty drawn up in the wake of the fall of the Berlin wall. It aims to offer a secure legal framework to Western European enterprises wishing to invest in post-communist states.
A recent study shows that the total value of fossil fuel investments protected by the ECT and located in the EU, U.K. and Switzerland is €344.6 billion.
As reported by Politico, a coordinated exit will likely lead to thorny legal issues due to the ‘sunset clause’ present within the ECT. This clause subjects State parties to legal action by investors for 20 years after they exit the treaty. To counter its effects, the Commission is suggesting that member states sign a deal between themselves declaring that the ECT “does not apply, and has never applied, in intra-EU relations”.
If a full-scale withdrawal is rejected by the bloc, the Commission may either back a withdrawal preceded by negotiations aimed at reforming the ECT for those member states that remain, or push the Council to support proposed reforms while starting a coordinated departure process in parallel.
Meanwhile, Switzerland has said that it will not exit the ECT, thereby pushing companies wishing to sue companies under the ECT to treaty shop in Switzerland.
PFAS • On 7 February, the European Chemicals Agency published its proposal to restrict PFASs, otherwise known as ‘forever chemicals’. The proposed restriction on ‘the manufacture, placing on the market and use’ of PFASs will hit around 10.000 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances which are used in a range of consumer goods, but are also known to persist in the environment and lead to irreversible environmental exposure and bioaccumulation.
While consumer organisations favour the ban, plastics manufacturers and chip suppliers have warned that it will disrupt innovation and supply chains, thereby leading to increased prices for consumer goods.
What we’ve been reading
Europe needs a new Iran strategy, writes Luigi Scazzieri of the CER. The clock is ticking: soon there won’t be time left to avoid either a nuclear Iran, a conflict in the Middle East, or both.
This week’s newsletter is brought to you by Ysabel Chen, Mark Soler, Maxence de la Rochère and Augustin Bourleaud. See you next Monday!